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Publisher: Peytchinski Publishing Ltd.
ISSN: 1312-773X (Online)
Issue: 2021, vol. 27, issue3
Subject Area: Medicine
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DOI: 10.5272/jimab.2021273.3911
Published online: 02 September 2021
Original article
J of IMAB. 2021 Jul-Sep;27(3):3911-3918
LONG-TERM MODEL AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE IN BULGARIA
Nikolay Atanasov
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Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Faculty of Public Health, Medical University Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
ABSTRACT:
Purpose: The aim of the study is to build a long-term model and conduct a Monte Carlo simulation of the public health expenditure (PHE) of Bulgaria with the gross domestic product (GDP) as an independent variable.
Material/Methods: Statistical models are used for modeling the long-term dependence between the macroeconomic dynamic rows, testing of hypotheses of stationarity (Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests), for serial autocorrelation and others.
Results: There is a well-defined, statistically significant long-term relationship between public health expenditure and gross domestic product. The long-term model of health expenditure has an estimate of the cointegration constant of 1.023 (p-value < 0.05). Monte Carlo simulations are presented with 1 000, 2 000 and 3 000 experiments, generated based on the normal distribution of the input variable.
Conclusions: In the period after the year 1990, a well-defined long-term relationship between public health expenditure and GDP exists. The Monte Carlo simulation can be regarded as a reliable instrument for studying the most likely fluctuations in health expenditure caused by the GDP.
Keywords: health expenditure, Monte Carlo simulation, cointegration, health policy,
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Please cite this article as: Atanasov N. Long-Term Model and Monte Carlo Simulation of the Public Health Expenditure in Bulgaria. J of IMAB. 2021 Jul-Sep;27(3):3911-3918.
DOI: 10.5272/jimab.2021273.3911
Correspondence to: Nikolay Georgiev Atanasov, Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Faculty of Public Health, Medical University Plovdiv; 15A, bul. Vasil Aprilov, Plovdiv, 4000, Bulgaria; E-mail: nik.atanasov@abv.bg
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Received: 12 February 2021
Published online: 02 September 2021